2026 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth term in office. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1990. An incumbent senator has not lost a primary since 2017, in Alabama, and has not done so in Texas since 1970.
Republican primary
Background
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Both of them have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.[1][2][3][4]
The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party’s establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate.[5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads.[6][7] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his.[8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary.[9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020.[10]
Campaign
Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[11] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race.[12]
Candidates
Declared
- Virgil Bierschwale, software developer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[13][14]
- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present), former Texas Attorney General (1999–2002), and former Supreme Court of Texas Justice (1991–1997)[15]
- Alexander Duncan, police officer[13][14]
- Gulrez Khan, home healthcare company owner, candidate for Texas's 32nd congressional district in 2024, and candidate for mayor of Lubbock in 2022[13][14]
- Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board[16]
- Barrett McNabb, chiropractic business owner[13]
- Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present), former Texas state senator (2013–2015), and former member of the Texas House of Representatives (2003–2013)[17]
- Tony Schmoker, realtor[13][14]
- Leo Wyatt[13][14]
Publicly expressed interest
- Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present)[18][19]
Potential
- Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)[20]
- Beth Van Duyne, U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2021–present)[21]
Endorsements
John Cornyn
- Executive branch officials
- Rick Perry, former Secretary of Energy (2017-2019) and former governor of Texas (2000-2015)[22]
- U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present), Senate Majority Whip (2025–present)[23]
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[23]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[23]
- Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present)[24]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[23]
- Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present)[24]
- Tim Scott, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[25]
- John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Majority Leader (2025–present)[26]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[23]
- U.S. representatives
- Jake Ellzey, U.S. representative from Texas's 6th congressional district (2021–present)[27]
- French Hill, U.S. representative from Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2015–present)[23]
- Organizations
Ken Paxton
- U.S. representatives
- Lance Gooden, U.S. representative from Texas's 5th congressional district (2019–present)[29]
- Troy Nehls, U.S. representative from Texas's 22nd congressional district (2021–present)[29]
- State legislators
- Matt Rinaldi, former state representative from the 115th district (2015–2019) and former chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024)[32]
- Organizations
- Individuals
Declined to endorse
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[24]
- U.S. representatives
- Brian Babin, U.S. representative from Texas's 36th congressional district (2015–present)[23]
- Keith Self, U.S. representative from Texas's 3rd congressional district (2023–present)[23]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| John Cornyn (R) | $8,046,983 | $2,773,090 | $5,907,354 |
| Barrett McNabb (R) | $215,163 | $36,392 | $178,771 |
| Ken Paxton (R) | $2,908,591 | $391,140 | $2,517,451 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[34] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ken Paxton |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[35] | August 11–12, 2025 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 30% | 29% | 5%[b] | 36% |
| Texas Southern University[36] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[37][38][A] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 57% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler[39] | May 28 – June 7, 2025 | 538 (RV) | – | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[40][41][B] | June 6–8, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UpONE Insights (R)[42][43][C] | May 27–28, 2025 | 600 (V) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 50% | – | 21% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 43% | – | 23% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[45][46][D] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R)[47][48] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[49][E] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 40% | 56% | – | |
| Internal Republican Party poll[50] | Mid–April 2025 | 605 (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D)[51][F] |
March 7–10, 2025 | – (RV) | – | 27% | 38% | 19%[c] | 16% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[52] | January 28 – February 2, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 53% | – | 19% |
| Victory Insights (R)[53] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | – | 25% |
| CWS Research (R)[54][G] | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | 51% | – | 18% |
Hypothetical polling
- John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ken Paxton |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University[36] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 30% | 35% | 22% | 13% |
| G1 Research[55] | Late June 2025 | – | – | 28% | 41% | 17% | 14% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[37][38][A] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 49% | 13% | 7% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 27% | 34% | 15% | 24% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[45][46][D] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 46% | 16% | – |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R)[47][48] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 43% | 14% | 16% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[49][E] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 34% | 44% | 19% | – |
- John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 31% | 30% |
- John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ronny Jackson |
Chip Roy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R)[56][G] | October 19–23, 2022 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 14% | 18% | 33% |
- John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Someone Else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R)[53] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
- Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Democratic primary
Background
Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[57][58][59][60]
Candidates
Declared
- Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024[61]
- Emily Morgul, administrative assistant[62]
- Michael Swanson, waiter[62]
- Terry Virts, media personality and retired astronaut[63]
Publicly expressed interest
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present)[64]
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2013–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for president in 2020, and nominee for governor in 2022[65]
- James Talarico, state representative (2018–present)[66] (decision expected summer 2025)[67]
Potential
- Jasmine Crockett, U.S. representative from Texas's 30th congressional district (2023–present)[68]
- Ron Nirenberg, mayor of San Antonio (2017–2025)[69]
Declined
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[70]
- Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024 (running for re-election)[71]
- Clay Jenkins, Dallas County Judge[d] (2011–present)[72]
- Marc Veasey, U.S. representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present)[73]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Michael Swanson (D) | $2,504 | $1,330 | $1,174 |
| Terry Virts (D) | $201,255 | $115,653 | $85,602 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[34] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Emily Morgul |
Michael Swanson |
Terry Virts |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[35] | August 11–12, 2025 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 34% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Joaquin Castro |
James Talarico |
Jasmine Crockett |
Beto O'Rourke |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University[36] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | – | – | – | 58% | 4% |
| 50% | – | 43% | – | – | 7% | ||||
| 52% | 41% | – | – | – | 7% | ||||
| NRSC (R)[74] | July 4–7, 2025 | 566 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | 13% | – | 35% | 13% | 18% |
Third-party and independent candidates
Candidates
Declared
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[76] | Likely R | July 24, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[77] | Likely R | July 17, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] | Likely R | March 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[79] | Tilt R | April 27, 2025 |
Polling
John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[35] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[35] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Brad Parscale (R)[50] | Mid–April 2025 | >1,000 (LV) | – | 37% | 52% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[44] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[40][41][B] | June 6–8, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[40][41][B] | June 6–8, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll conducted by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
- ^ a b c Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trending Politics, a conservative news website
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
- ^ Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
References
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- ^ Jacobs, Ben (May 14, 2025). "The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle". POLITICO. Retrieved May 15, 2025.
- ^ McLaughlin, Seth. "Sen. Cornyn's reelection bid faces more warning signs in new Senate primary poll". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 5, 2025.
- ^ Goodman, J. David (May 30, 2025). "Cornyn Calls Primary Fight Against Ken Paxton a 'Test of Character'". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
- ^ Jacobs, Ben (June 7, 2025). "'Trump movement' turns on Cornyn, poll finds". POLITICO. Retrieved June 7, 2025.
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[Wesley Hunt] added himself to this list, pointing to the reported headwinds his state's senior Sen. John Cornyn faces next year — and the possibility of him opting to retire. Hunt did not rule out a Senate run under the right circumstances
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- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
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- ^ a b "2026 Election United States Senate – Texas". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 16, 2025.
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- ^ a b c McLaughlin, Seth (August 19, 2025). "Is Beto back? Poll shows O'Rourke leads Democratic Senate primary race in Texas". The Washington Times. Retrieved August 19, 2025.
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- ^ a b c @IAPolls2022 (June 17, 2025). "Texas Poll – Senate. Paxton: 49%, Cornyn: 33%. "If Trump endorses Cornyn" Paxton: 46%, Cornyn: 34% —— General Election: Cornyn (inc): 42%, Gen. Democrat: 35%. Gen. Democrat: 42%, Paxton: 39%. Stratus Intelligence for R Group – 6/6-8" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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External links
- Official campaign websites