Zapad 2025

Zapad 2025 is a scheduled Russian-Belarusian joint strategic military exercise, to be conducted in Belarus on 12–16 September 2025. Belarus has said the drills will test the Union State's defensive readiness, with main activities staged at central training areas near Barysaw and a reciprocal movement of units between the two states.[1] It will be the first Zapad exercise since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022; authorities describe a scaled-down format and locations deeper inside Belarus.[2]

Belarus has indicated an official participation figure of roughly 13,000 personnel, substantially fewer than the ~200,000 claimed for Zapad-2021.[2] Analysts note that headline figures in past iterations sometimes understate the true scale and dispersal of activity; some commentaries anticipate higher effective numbers across parallel events.[3][4]

Belarusian officials say the exercise will include training related to nuclear weapons employment and practice involving Russia's Oreshnik missile system, described as nuclear-capable and slated for delivery to Belarus by late 2025.[5][6][1]

Minsk states that it has invited all 56 states under the OSCE Vienna Document to observe, plus additional partners, including NATO countries and accredited military attachés, with responses requested by 20 August 2025.[7]

EU analysts warn Zapad-2025 could be used to apply pressure near NATO's eastern flank or serve as cover for escalation, even if the exercise is officially presented as defensive.[4][3] Some commentary also highlights the recurring pattern of public participant counts hovering near thresholds that would otherwise compel mandatory observation under the Vienna Document.[3]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Zapad 2025, Oreshnik missiles, response to threats in defense minister's report to Belarus president". eng.belta.by. 13 August 2025. Retrieved 13 August 2025.
  2. ^ a b Times, The Moscow (12 August 2025). "Russia and Belarus to Hold First Zapad Military Drills Since Ukraine Invasion on Sept. 12-16". The Moscow Times. Retrieved 13 August 2025.
  3. ^ a b c Beznosiuk, Maksym (4 August 2025). "Russia Marshals its Strength for Zapad-2025". CEPA. Retrieved 13 August 2025.
  4. ^ a b MAŽYLIS, Liudas. "Parliamentary question | Joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise 'Zapad 2025' | P-002423/2025 | European Parliament". www.europarl.europa.eu. Retrieved 13 August 2025.
  5. ^ "Belarus' Defence Minister: Zapad-2025 exercise to practice planning of nuclear weapon deployment, use of Oreshnik missile". www.sb.by (in Russian). Retrieved 13 August 2025.
  6. ^ "Zapad-2025 military drills include training in nuclear weapons use: Belarus". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 13 August 2025.
  7. ^ "Khrenin: International observers, including from NATO countries, invited to monitor Zapad 2025". eng.belta.by. 13 August 2025. Retrieved 13 August 2025.
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