1978 United States Senate election in New Jersey
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The 1978 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 7, 1978. Incumbent Senator Clifford P. Case ran for re-election to a fifth term in office, narrowly losing the Republican primary by anti-tax conservative Jeff Bell, who lost the general election to Democrat Bill Bradley. Bell was the unsuccessful Republican nominee for this seat again in 2014.
Primary elections were held on June 6, 1978.[1] Case was defeated by Bell, a political novice forty years his junior, while Bradley easily won the Democratic primary over State Treasurer Richard Leone and state senator Alexander Menza.
This was the first time Democrats won this seat since 1936, and the first time since 1938 that Democrats held both seats in the state.
Republican primary
Background
In 1972, U.S. Senator Clifford P. Case won re-election to a fourth term in office by a record 780,000 votes.[2] He was the ranking Republican on the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.[3] In his political career, which covered over twelve elections in the course of forty years, Case had lost only one race for New Jersey General Assembly in 1941.[4] However, he had a reputation as a liberal internationalist and commonly drew challengers in the Republican primary.[5]
Beginning in 1974, Jeff Bell was a top policy advisor to former Governor of California Ronald Reagan and a leading architect of his supply-side economics platform during the 1976 Republican primary campaign against Gerald Ford.[3] In 1976, Bell left the Ronald Reagan presidential campaign and relocated to New Jersey with the express intent of challenging Clifford Case, the long-time incumbent Senator and bête noire of conservative Republicans.[2][3]
Candidates
- Jeff Bell, political aide and speechwriter for Ronald Reagan's 1976 presidential campaign
- Clifford P. Case, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1955
Campaign
Bell ran an energetic, active campaign centered around his advocacy of supply-side economics. Case, on the other hand, largely ignored his challenger, remained in Washington attending to his legislative duties, and spent only about $100,000.[6] He was the only major candidate in either primary who did not use television commercials, and he also generally disfavored telephone banks, direct mailing, and internal polling. He ignored advice from advisors to take the challenge seriously, at least in order to get a running start on the general election.[5]
The core policy proposal of Bell's campaign was a large federal income tax cut for the purpose of stimulating domestic investment, similar to the plan proposed in Congress by William Roth and Jack Kemp. Under Bell's plan, the top marginal rate would be cut by 20 percentage points, and lower rates would be cut by 30 percentage points across the board. Case countered that the proposal would be "enormously inflationary."[2]
Bell also criticized Case on foreign policy, referring to him as "too liberal", in particular for his vote in favor for the Torrijos–Carter Treaties.[3] Bell also advocated the sale of military planes to Egypt and other Arab states, which Case had voted against due to his strong support for Israel. Late in the campaign, Case moderated his position, stating that he could support aid to Egypt but wanted moderate Arab leaders to recognize "the right of Israel to exist". He reinforced his commitment to "a strong Israel" and continued to oppose any "even-handed" approach in the Middle East.[2]
Endorsements
Case had the support of every Republican member of the state legislature and 20 out of 21 county chairmen. Some municipal chairmen supported Bell.[5]
Case made particular use of former U.S. attorney Jonathan L. Goldstein, who served as his campaign counsel and had prosecuted former party chairman Nelson G. Gross and Bergen County chair Anthony Statile, as a campaign surrogate.[5]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size[a] |
Jeff Bell | Clifford Case | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | May 7–16, 1978 | LV | 8% | 43% | 49% |
| Associated Press/WNBC[8] | May 1978 | 700 (RV) | 14% | 50% | 36% |
Results
- 50-60%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
In conceding defeat, Case remarked, "It was an interesting campaign; it fooled everyone. The turnout was very light and perhaps that indicated a deep unhappiness of the voters with the people of authority and power. I shall continue to believe in the Republican Party and to support it."[2] He applauded Bell as a "nice young man" but said that he remained convinced that Bell would not have a chance of winning the general election.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Bell | 118,555 | 50.74 | |
| Republican | Clifford P. Case (incumbent) | 115,082 | 49.26 | |
| Total votes | 233,637 | 100.00 | ||
Aftermath and legacy
On June 8, following further reflection, Case expressed no regret over his campaign strategy and attributed his defeat to "the dissatisfaction of people with government."[6] Party leadership, in particular former assembly speaker Thomas Kean, criticized Case for his "longtime reluctance to use modern campaign techniques."[5]
Case declined to endorse Bell for the general election.[6]
Bell's victory, which was held the same night as popular tax reform referendums in California and Ohio, was taken as a symbol of a broader anti-tax sentiment in the United States,[5] which culminated in the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and a Republican majority in Congress. In 2018, following Bell's death, Robert W. Merry of The American Conservative credited Bell as the first candidate to run on a supply-side platform and, along with Jack Kemp, Jude Wanniski, and Robert Bartley, one of the founders of the supply-side movement.[9]
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Wesley K. Bell, former mayor of Stafford Township
- Bill Bradley, former professional basketball player
- Richard Leone, former New Jersey State Treasurer
- Alexander J. Menza, state senator from Hillside
- Kenneth C. McCarthy
- Ray Rollinson, perennial candidate
Withdrew
- Andrew Maguire, U.S. representative from Ridgewood (withdrew February 6, 1978; ran for re-election)[10][11]
Declined
- Frank J. Guarini, chair of the Hudson County Democratic Organization and former state senator (declined January 27, 1978; ran for U.S. representative)[10]
Endorsements
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Florio, U.S. representative from New Jersey's 1st congressional district[12]
- Local officials
- Thomas F. X. Smith, mayor of Jersey City
- State legislators
- Angelo Errichetti, state senator and mayor of Camden[12]
Debates
| No. | Date and time | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Present
A Absent |
Bradley | Leone | Maguire | Menza | ||||
| 1[13] | January 20, 1978 | WPIX11 | John Hamilton | N/A | P | P | P | |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s)
administered |
Sample
size[a] |
Bill Bradley | Richard Leone | Alexander Menza | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | May 7–16, 1978 | LV | 16% | 12% | 3% | 69% |
| Associated Press/WNBC[8] | May 1978 | 700 (RV) | 37% | 9% | 3% | 51% |
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bill Bradley | 217,502 | 58.90 | |
| Democratic | Richard Leone | 97,667 | 26.45 | |
| Democratic | Alexander J. Menza | 32,386 | 8.77 | |
| Democratic | Kenneth C. McCarthy | 9,524 | 2.58 | |
| Democratic | Wesley K. Bell | 8,800 | 2.38 | |
| Democratic | Ray Rollinson | 3,374 | 0.91 | |
| Total votes | 369,253 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Jeff Bell, political aide and speechwriter for Ronald Reagan's 1976 presidential campaign (Republican)
- Robert Bowen (Labor)
- Bill Bradley, former professional basketball player (Democratic)
- J.M. Carter (God We Trust)
- Alice Conner (Socialist Workers)
- Bill Gahres (Down With Lawyers)
- Paul Ferguson (Socialist Labor)
- Jasper C. Gould (Independent)
- Jack Moyers (Libertarian)
- Herbert H. Shaw, perennial candidate (Politicians are Crooks)
- William R. Thorn (Independent)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Bill Bradley (D) |
Jeffrey Bell (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | May 7–16, 1978 | 793 RV | 36% | 17% | 47% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | Sept. 19–Oct. 1, 1978 | 883 RV | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | October 23–29, 1978 | 946 RV | 50% | 32% | 18% |
| 510 LV | 51% | 40% | 9% |
with Case
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Clifford Case (R) |
Bill Bradley (D) |
Richard Leone (D) |
Alex Menza (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | May 7–16, 1978 | 1007 A | ±4.0% | 37% | 27% | – | – | 36% |
| 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
| 43% | – | – | 18% | 40% |
with Bell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeffrey Bell (R) |
Richard Leone (D) |
Alex Menza (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7] | May 7–16, 1978 | 620 LV | ±?% | 18% | 29% | – | 54% |
| 19% | – | 22% | 59% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bill Bradley | 1,082,960 | 55.32% |  20.81
| |
| Republican | Jeff Bell | 844,200 | 43.13% |  19.33
| |
| Independent | Herbert H. Shaw | 4,736 | 0.24% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bill Gahres | 3,817 | 0.20% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Jack Moyers | 3,809 | 0.20% | N/A | |
| U.S. Labor | Robert Bowen | 3,656 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Independent | J.M. Carter | 3,618 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jasper C. Gould | 2,955 | 0.15% | N/A | |
| Independent | William R. Thorn | 2,776 | 0.14% | N/A | |
| Socialist Labor | Paul Ferguson | 2,604 | 0.13% | 0.23
| |
| Socialist Workers | Alice Conner | 2,384 | 0.12% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,957,515 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
References
- ^ a b c "1978 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Jersey. 1978. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 21, 2013. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
- ^ a b c d e "CASE UPSET BY BELL IN JERSEY PRIMARY; BRADLEY WINS EASILY; SENATOR LOSES 5th-TERM BID His Conservative Republican Foe Shows Surprising Strength-- Worked for Reagan in '76 2d Loss for Moderates Bell Defeats Case in Close Contest As Bradley Wins Easily in Jersey Glee in Bradley Camp". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 1, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e "Bell Campaigned Long and Hard; Bell Campaigned Long and Hard Wrote for National Review Seminar in Conservatism". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 1, 2025.
- ^ "Case's Only Other Defeat Was in '42 Assembly Race; McCarthy Denounced in 1954". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 1, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f "G.O.P. Leaders Lay Case's Defeat To His Failure to Change Tactics (Published 1978)". June 11, 1978. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ a b c "Case Lays Loss to Antigovernment Mood (Published 1978)". June 9, 1978. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f g Rutgers-Eagleton
- ^ a b "Leone, Trailing in New Poll, Calls Bradley's Ad Campaign 'Insulting' (Published 1978)". May 19, 1978. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ "Jeffrey Bell, G.O.P. Giant-Killer and Supply-Sider, Dies at 74 (Published 2018)". February 20, 2018. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ a b "Oyrne's Leverage in Senate Race Increases as Guarini Bows Out (Published 1978)". January 28, 1978. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ "Rep. Maguire in Jersey Decides Against a Contest for U.S. Senate (Published 1978)". February 7, 1978. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ a b Wildstein, David (October 3, 2022). "The time Jim Florio led an off-the-line slate and walloped the Camden Democratic machine". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ "Storm Fails to Deter Debate by 3 Jersey Candidates (Published 1978)". January 21, 1978. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
- ^ "1978 General Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Jersey. 1978. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 5, 2016. Retrieved November 12, 2018.