Next United Kingdom general election in Scotland

Next United Kingdom general election in Scotland
Scotland
On or before 15 August 2029
All 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons
Party Leader Last election
Labour Keir Starmer 37
SNP John Swinney[a] 9
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 6
Conservative Kemi Badenoch 5
Incumbent Prime Minister
Keir Starmer
Labour

The next United Kingdom general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029, and all 57 Scottish Westminster seats will be contested. The election will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which in turn determines the government of the United Kingdom.

Date

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met, unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister. Polling day must occur no more than 25 working days following dissolution.[1]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election in Scotland

All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2024 general election on 4 July 2024 to the present day.

Polling Between Jul 2024 and present

Target Seats

Identified potential target seats using calculation of requiring 5% swing or less from winning party at the 2024 general election for the seat to change hands. For those parties with no target seats using this calculation shows the three seats with smallest swing required for that party to win a seat. Each constituency is linked to data about that constituency that includes details about the 2024 general election result.

Labour

Rank Constituency Winning party 2024 Swing
required
1 Dundee Central[2] Scottish National Party 0.87%
2 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry[3] Scottish National Party 0.97%
3 Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[4] Scottish National Party 1.05%
4 Aberdeen North[5] Scottish National Party 2.09%
5 Aberdeen South[6] Scottish National Party 4.05%
6 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale[7] Conservative Party 5.49%

Scottish National Party

Rank Constituency Winning party 2024 Swing
required
1 Gordon and Buchan[8] Conservative Party 1.00%
2 Dumfries and Galloway[9] Conservative Party 1.02%
3 Stirling and Strathallan[10] Labour Party 1.40%
4 Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire[11] Liberal Democrats 2.25%
5 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine[12] Conservative Party 3.51%
6 Livingston[13] Labour Party 3.93%
7 Edinburgh East and Musselburgh[14] Labour Party 4.08%
8 Glenrothes and Mid Fife[15] Labour Party 4.09%
9 Ayrshire North and Arran[16] Labour Party 4.20%
10 Glasgow South West[17] Labour Party 4.60%
11 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale[7] Conservative Party 4.80%
12 Glasgow South[18] Labour Party 4.90%
13 Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch[19] Labour Party 5.06%
14 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[20] Labour Party 5.07%
15 Glasgow North[21] Labour Party 5.09%
16 Glasgow East[22] Labour Party 5.34%
17 Falkirk[23] Labour Party 5.86%

Liberal Democrats

Rank Constituency Winning party 2024 Swing
required
1 Argyll, Bute and Lochaber South[24] Scottish National Party 9.16%
2 Gordon and Buchanh[25] Conservative Party 14.22%
3 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine[26] Conservative Party 15.62%

Conservative

Rank Constituency Winning party 2024 Swing
required
1 Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[4] Scottish National Party 1.08%
2 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[27] Scottish National Party 1.23%
3 Perth and Kinross-shire[28] Scottish National Party 4.12%
4 Aberdeen South[6] Scottish National Party 4.22%
5 Angus and Perthshire Glens[29] Scottish National Party 5.14%

Greens

Rank Constituency Winning party 2024 Swing
required
1 Dumfries and Galloway[9] Conservative Party 13.44%
2 Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[4] Scottish National Party 14.25%
3 Glasgow South[18] Labour Party 14.35%

Reform UK

Rank Constituency Winning party 2024 Swing
required
1 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale[7] Conservative Party 15.69%
2 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[20] Labour Party 17.67%
3 Aberdeen South[30] Labour Party 17.81%

MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Consti­tuency First elected Affiliation Date announced Note
None N/A

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Stephen Flynn leads the SNP in the House of Commons.

References

  1. ^ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022". www.legislation.gov.uk.
  2. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Dundee Central". 24 July 2024.
  3. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Arbroath and Broughty Ferry". 24 July 2024.
  4. ^ a b c "Result of 2024 GE Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey". 24 July 2024.
  5. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeen North". 24 July 2024.
  6. ^ a b "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeen South". 24 July 2024.
  7. ^ a b c "Result of 2024 GE Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale". 24 July 2024.
  8. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Gordon and Buchan". 24 July 2024.
  9. ^ a b "Result of 2024 GE Dumfries and Galloway". 24 July 2024.
  10. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Stirling and Strathallan". 24 July 2024.
  11. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire". 24 July 2024.
  12. ^ "Result of 2024 GE West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine". 24 July 2024.
  13. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Livingston". 24 July 2024.
  14. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Edinburgh East and Musselburgh". 24 July 2024.
  15. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Glenrothes and Mid Fife". 24 July 2024.
  16. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Ayrshire North and Arran". 24 July 2024.
  17. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow South West". 24 July 2024.
  18. ^ a b "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow South". 24 July 2024.
  19. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch". 24 July 2024.
  20. ^ a b "Result of 2024 GE Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock". 24 July 2024.
  21. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow Nort". 24 July 2024.
  22. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Glasgow East". 24 July 2024.
  23. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Falkirk". 24 July 2024.
  24. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber". 24 July 2024.
  25. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Gordon and Buchan". 24 July 2024.
  26. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeenshire West and Kincardin". 24 July 2024.
  27. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeenshire North and Moray East". 24 July 2024.
  28. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Perth and Kinross-shire". 24 July 2024.
  29. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Angus and Perthshire Glens". 24 July 2024.
  30. ^ "Result of 2024 GE Aberdeen Sout". 24 July 2024.


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