Next French legislative election

Next French legislative election
By June 2029
All 577 seats in the National Assembly
289 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Collective leadership Gabriel Attal
Alliance NFP Ensemble
Leader's seat – Hauts-de-Seine's 10th
Last election 193 159
Seats needed Increase 96 Increase 130
 
Leader Jordan Bardella Bruno Retailleau
Party RN/UDR LR
Leader's seat None[a] –
Last election 142 39
Seats needed Increase 147 Increase 250
Incumbent Prime Minister

François Bayrou
MoDem



Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in France by 2029 to elect all 577 members of the 18th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic.[1]

Background

The 2024 elections resulted in a hung parliament and a minority government led by Michel Barnier being appointed by president Emmanuel Macron, with François Bayrou being appointed as the new prime minister after Barnier's government collapsed following a no-confidence vote.

The absence of a stable majority means the current government lives under the threat of a future vote of no confidence as well as losing parliamentary votes which has led to speculations of snap elections taking place well ahead of 2029.[2][3][4]

Electoral system

The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[5]

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for next French legislative election
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size EXG NFP DVG ECO ENS DVC LR DVD DLF RN and allies REC Others Lead
LFI LE PCF PS UXD RN
Ifop[6] 3–4 Jun 2025 1,385 0.5% 21% 7% – 18% – 11% 2% 1% 1% 35% 2% 1.5% 14%
1% 11% 13% 4% – 18% – 11% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 35% 2% 1.5% 17%
0.5% 9% 5% 3% 12% 3% – 16% – 10% 2% 1% 0.5% 34% 2.5% 1.5% 18%
Ifop[7] 5–6 Feb 2025 1,377 1% 14% 13% 2% – 15% – 13% 1% 1% 1% 35% 3% 1% 21%
1.5% 8% 19% 2.5% – 15% – 12% 1% 1% 0.5% 35% 3% 1.5% 16%
Ministry of the Interior 30 Jun 2024 — 1.14% 28.21% 1.57% 0.57% 21.28% 1.22% 6.57% 3.60% 0.28% 3.96% 29.26% 0.75% 1.60% 1.05%

Notes

  1. ^ A Member of the European Parliament

References

  1. ^ "French Legislative Election, 2029". PoliGlove.
  2. ^ Dupont, Laureline (26 June 2024). "Quel gouvernement après le 7 juillet ? Les trois scénarios secrets sur la table de Macron". L'Express. Archived from the original on 29 June 2024. Retrieved 30 June 2024.
  3. ^ "What Do France's Surprise Election Results Mean for the Far Right? | Council on Foreign Relations". www.cfr.org. Retrieved 23 October 2024. ... to keep the government functioning until July 2025, the next time that general elections can be held.
  4. ^ "National Rally bets on early election". Brussels Signal. 7 October 2024. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
  5. ^ "Elections: France National Assembly 2017 (first round)". Election Guide. International Foundation for Electoral Systems. 11 June 2017. Archived from the original on 15 August 2020. Retrieved 16 June 2022.
  6. ^ "Le regard des Français sur la dissolution du 9 juin 2024 : retour sur l'évènement et perspectives législatives en cas de nouvelles élections" (PDF). Ifop (in French). p. 27. Retrieved 6 June 2025.
  7. ^ "Current election polls from Ifop" (PDF). Current election polls from Ifop. Retrieved 25 March 2025.
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