July 2025 Japan megaquake prophecy

Shake map of the maximum JMA seismic intensities by prefecture for the 11 March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake; the Tokara Islands are in the insert to the upper left

From the end of 2024, a rumor began that a great earthquake would occur in Japan in July 2025, based on a purported prophecy in the 1999 manga The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki. Its spread in several Asian countries resulted in a notable decline in holiday travel to Japan. Seismologists discounted the prediction.

Background

External image
image icon The manga cover of The Future I Saw. One of the Japanese texts reads, "great disaster in March 2011" (Japanese: 大災害は2011年3月).[1] The text only appeared on the book's cover, and the prediction is not mentioned anywhere inside the book itself.[2]

The Future I Saw is a manga written by Ryo Tatsuki and first published by Asahi Sonorama[a] in 1999. It is presented as a diary of the author's dreams. While some media noted the manga after the March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, when Tatsuki received messages noting that a diary entry illustrated on the manga's cover had predicted a disaster in March 2011,[4][5] it didn't have noticeable attention at the time.[6] Tatsuki had already forgotten about the text by that time.[6]

A reprinted version was published by Asuka Shinsha in October 2020, whereupon the out-of-print edition received renewed attention; what was now a pop culture artifact eventually reached a price of up to 500,000 yen.[7] Such was its fame that a Tatsuki impersonator of began making false claims in interviews and magazines such as having had predicted the Great Hanshin earthquake and the death of Ozaki Yutaka. The impersonator eventually claimed that Mount Fuji would erupt in August, which did not happen.

It was during this period that the Japanese TV show Unbelievable began making dramas of mysterious experiences published by Asuka Shinsha. Tatsuki contacted the publisher, and a new, expanded verson was published on October 1, 2021.[6] The reprint became the best-selling book weekly in Japan on May 13, 2025.[8]

The reprints included the text "The real disaster will strike in July 2025" from another of Tatsuki's dreams, with Tatsuki claiming that said event would be a massive fissure opening in the Philippine Sea, causing a tsunami "three times as tall as those from the Tohoku earthquake" that would destroy Japan. [9][10][11]

Impact

An opinion poll conducted by Sky Perfect JSAT in June 2025 showed that 49.4% of the Japanese public had heard rumors of the prophecy.[12]

The number of videos discussing the prophecy started to rise around 2023 and began spreading in the Sinophone, particularly in Hong Kong and Taiwan.[13][14] The resulting notable decline in holiday bookings to Japan forced Greater Bay Airlines to reduce the number of flights to Sendai Airport and Tokushima Airport; Hong Kong Airlines went so far as to shut down flights to Sendai completely as of May 31.[15][16][17] According to Bloomberg, bookings from Hong Kong were down 50% from their annual median, with those from late June and early July down as much as 83%.[14]

The rumor had become a viral phenomenon having spread to the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. Flight ticket prices in Korea dropped below 100,000 won in June 2025.[18] Posts concerning and warning of traveling to Japan were "overflowing" on social media in Thailand and Vietnam,[4] and a cancellation wave was found in the Philippines.[19][20] Singaporean tourists, on the other hand, were unfazed by the prophecy: the number of orders to Japan on both Trip.com and Traveloka did not decrease.[21]

The economic impact was such that it came to the attention Anglosphere in late May, with coverage from The Guardian, CNN, etc., and the Francophonie on 30 June, with coverage from Le Monde.[4][5]

July 2025

From June 25 to July 4, a total of 1,198 earthquakes occurred near the Tokara Islands in far southwest Japan. The largest of these, on July 4, was at the lower end of 6 on the Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale (JMA scale).[22] This earthquake swarm was the most intense in the region since 1995.[23] 31 residents requested evacuation to Mainland Japan following several earthquakes of 5+ on the JMA scale, i.e. approximately VII on the Mercalli scale[b][25][26] This series of earthquakes were eventually connected to the rumors of disasters in July.

On July 5, 2025, when the prophecy didn't come true, the entry "Nothing happened in Japan" (Chinese: 日本无事发生) became the first trend on Sina Weibo.[27]

A large earthquake did happen, however, but much later in the month, on July 30, and from a different location; tsunami waves associated with the 2025 Kamchatka earthquake off the Eastern coast of Russia impacted the region of Hokkaido at 10:40 am JST.[28][29] The event sparked some renewed interest in the manga, although Tatsuki herself had previously advised "Don't be overly swayed by my dreams."[30]

Reactions

Fact-check columns on Rappler and the Mainichi Shimbun both stated that scientists cannot predict where and when earthquakes and tsunamis will strike. The Japan Meteorological Agency described accurate prediction of earthquakes as a "hoax".[20][31] Shengji Wei, Assistant Professor of Asian School of the Environment at Nanyang Technological University, indicated that predicting earthquakes accurately is impossible with current technology.[32]

Ayaka Ebita, director of the Earthquake and Tsunami Observations Division in Japan Meteorological Agency, responded that earthquakes were "totally coincidental" with the prophecy on July 5 given the geologic conditions of Japan, and urged people to "base their judgment on science".[33][34]

Huang Hsin-Hua, associate research fellow of the Institute of Earth Sciences in Academia Sinica, noted that earthquakes occur at the boundaries of plates. For earthquakes occur at the center of a plate, as the book suggested, does not match the current scientific evidence.[35]

A film based on Tatsuki's predictions named 4:18 AM, July 5, 2025 has been announced; neither the publisher nor Tatsuki herself were related to either its production or promotion. The publisher also stated that the while Tatsuki had noted that the dream itself was around "4:18 AM, July 5, 2021", the premonition of disaster in her dream only mentioned "July 2025".[36]

Further reads

  • ""The Future I Saw" - Prophetic Manga by Ryo Tatsuki". RoYuMi - Japan Hub. 17 August 2021. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  • Salcedo, Mary Joy (5 July 2025). "DOST: No scientific basis for Japan manga's megaquake prediction in PH". Cebu Daily News. Retrieved 11 July 2025.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Defuncted in September 2007.[3]
  2. ^ A strange roaring from the sea before the earthquakes has been reported, and the quakes and been strong and constant enough to substantially interrupt sleep.[24]

References

  1. ^ Adelstein, Jake (4 July 2025). "July 5 Is the End of the World. Come Celebrate With Me on July 6". Unseen Japan. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  2. ^ "漫画家・たつき諒さんの「7月、大災害」が拡散 信じたくなる心理は". 毎日新聞 (in Japanese). Retrieved 2025-05-17.
  3. ^ "朝日ソノラマ、9月に営業停止 「時代の流れに抗し切れず」". ITmedia NEWS (in Japanese). Retrieved 2025-05-17.
  4. ^ a b c Lau, Mai Takiguchi, Chris (2025-05-19). "A Japanese manga claims a natural disaster is imminent. Now, some tourists are canceling their trips". CNN. Archived from the original on 2025-05-21. Retrieved 2025-05-24.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. ^ a b "Au Japon, une mangaka prédit une catastrophe début juillet et fait chuter le tourisme". July 1, 2025. Archived from the original on 2025-07-01 – via Le Monde.
  6. ^ a b c 「文藝春秋」編集部 (2022-12-27). "「本当の大災難は2025年7月にやってくる」東日本大震災の予言が的中…漫画家・たつき諒が語った"予知夢の意味" | 災害大国を生きる". 文春オンライン (in Japanese). Retrieved 2025-05-17.
  7. ^ "中古本に50万円の値がついた幻の「予言マンガ」復刻版がベストセラーランキングに登場". 2021-10-16. Retrieved 2025-07-09.
  8. ^ "7月の大災害を"予言"した『私が見た未来』ベストセラー1位に 同作モチーフ映画には発行元が「関与しておりません」と"注意喚起"も［エンターテインメントベストセラー］". bookbang (in Japanese). 2025-05-17. Retrieved 2025-07-09.
  9. ^ Klawans, Justin (May 22, 2025). "A manga predicting a natural disaster is affecting tourism to Japan". The Week US.
  10. ^ "「2025年7月5日に隕石落下で大災害」は本当にあり得る？ JAXA宇宙研・藤本正樹所長にとことん聞いてみた". Newsweek Japan (in Japanese). 2025-05-02. Retrieved 2025-07-09.
  11. ^ "SNSで「2025年7月5日」がトレンド入り。漫画家の予知夢に出た「大震災」「巨大津波」の予言は都市伝説か現実か徹底検証". まぐまぐニュース！ (in Japanese). 2025-03-31. Retrieved 2025-05-17.
  12. ^ "Manga-Predicted Megaquake? Baseless Rumors of July Disaster in Japan Deter Some Visitors". nippon.com. June 27, 2025.
  13. ^ "「日本で7月に…」根拠なき"災害予言"が拡散 専門家の見解は | NHK". NHKニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  14. ^ a b McCurry, Justin (May 26, 2025). "Holiday bookings to Japan are down - could a 90s manga comic's earthquake prediction be to blame?". The Guardian.
  15. ^ "Hong Kong Airlines Discontinues Sendai Service in late-May 2025". AeroRoutes. Retrieved 2025-05-24.
  16. ^ Townsend, Verity (2025-05-23). "Manga's July 2025 Japan Disaster Prediction Shakes Up Fear of 'The Big One' — and Some Are Even Abandoning Their Holiday Plans". IGN. Retrieved 2025-05-24.
  17. ^ "7月の日本大地震の噂、香港で旅行先変更の動き | 香港BSニュース". 香港でのビジネス進出や会社運営サポートは香港BS (in Japanese). Retrieved 2025-05-17.
  18. ^ CHON, KWON-PIL (28 June 2025). "Is it safe to travel to Japan? Korean travelers worry amid July quake rumors". koreajoongangdaily.joins.com. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  19. ^ Agustin, Carl Martin (4 July 2025). "Japanese manga sparks fears of megaquake hitting the Philippines". Cebu Daily News. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  20. ^ a b "Fact Check: Earthquakes can't be predicted, contrary to post claiming July 5 tremor". Rappler. 7 March 2025. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  21. ^ 王辉雯. "国人前往日本旅游未受大地震预言影响". www.zaobao.com.sg (in Simplified Chinese). Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  22. ^ "Over 1,000 Earthquakes in Less than Two Weeks Shake Japan's Southern Tokara Islands". nippon.com. July 4, 2025.
  23. ^ Speed, Jessica (July 4, 2025). "Residents of Tokara Islands begin evacuation as seismic swarm continues". The Japan Times.
  24. ^ "Japan: Tokara islanders sleepless after 900 quakes in two weeks". www.bbc.com. July 3, 2025.
  25. ^ "トカラ列島・悪石島、新たな避難希望31人 震度5強「インパクト」：朝日新聞". 朝日新聞 (in Japanese). 2025-07-05. Retrieved 2025-07-05.
  26. ^ "トカラ列島で震度6弱 頻発する揺れ…いつまで続く？ 南海トラフ巨大地震とは"関連なし"も…「2030～40年に発生する可能性が高い」 京大名誉教授が"地震への備え"改めて呼びかけ【識者解説】（ABCニュース）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2025-07-05.
  27. ^ "大地震谣言未应验 日本无事发生登微博热搜榜首". www.zaobao.com.sg (in Simplified Chinese). Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  28. ^ "Widespread tsunami warnings after magnitude 8.8 quake off Russia's east coast". BBC News. Retrieved 30 July 2025.
  29. ^ "New Baba Vanga's July 2025 prediction come true? Japan, Russia hit by Tsunami after massive 8.7 quake off Kamchatka". India Times. Retrieved 1 August 2025.
  30. ^ Caine, Bill (August 3, 2025). "As Tsunami Waves Swept the Pacific, a Manga Prophecy Gripped Asia".
  31. ^ "＜1分で解説＞「トカラの法則」「5日に大災害」SNS信じていい?". Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). Retrieved 2025-07-09.
  32. ^ 周依琳 (2025-05-29). "日本大地震将临 有迹可循或危言耸听？| 世界大解说". 联合早报 (in Chinese). 新加坡. Archived from the original on 2025-06-30. Retrieved 2025-07-06.
  33. ^ "「7月5日に大災難」"うわさ"の日に震度5強…気象庁「全くの偶然。日本では1年で2000回の地震。因果関係なし」". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). 5 July 2025. Retrieved 2025-07-05.
  34. ^ "気象庁会見 悪石島"当面 最大震度6弱程度の地震に注意を"". NHK NEWS WEB (in Japanese). 2025-07-05. Archived from the original on 2025-07-05. Retrieved 2025-07-05.
  35. ^ 馬麗昕. "網傳7/5大地震讓台港菲陸地連在一起是偽科學". 台灣事實查核中心 (in Chinese (Taiwan)). Retrieved 2025-07-08.
  36. ^ "7月の大災害を"予言"した『私が見た未来』ベストセラー1位に 同作モチーフ映画には発行元が「関与しておりません」と"注意喚起"も［エンターテインメントベストセラー］ | ニュース". Book Bang －ブックバン－. Retrieved 2025-05-17.
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