Birth dearth

Birth dearth is a neologism coined by Ben J. Wattenberg in his 1987 book of the same name, which refers to the declining fertility rates observed in many modern industrialized, affluent societies. It is often cited as a response to overpopulation. Countries and geographic regions that are currently experiencing the highest rates of declining populations include Western Europe, Japan, the Russian Federation, and South Korea.^[1] Populations in other industrialized countries, such as the United Kingdom and the United States, and developing, poorer regions of the world, including the Balkans, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, are also being impacted.^[1]

Russia

The Russian Federation is often mentioned in articles concerning birth dearth because of its rapidly declining population and the proposal by Vladimir Putin to offer women additional benefits for having more children. Should current trends continue, Russia's population will be an estimated 111 million in 2050, compared with 147 million in 2000, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects report (2004 Revision, medium variant).

Europe

Europe is one of the major geographic regions expected to decline in population in the coming years. Europe's population is forecast to decline by nearly 70 million people by 2050,^[2] as the total fertility rate has remained perpetually below the replacement rate.^[3] (Further information: Sub-replacement fertility and Population decline)

Spain

Spain is also facing a declining population, contributing to discussions about birth dearth.
The country's population decline has raised concerns about its future demographic makeup.
Specific policies and initiatives may be needed to address the declining fertility rates in Spain and mitigate the impact of birth dearth.

South Korea

South Korea is experiencing a decline in its population, aligning with the concept of birth dearth.
Similar to other nations, South Korea's declining fertility rates are leading to discussions about the potential long-term consequences.
Efforts to address these demographic challenges, such as policy changes or incentives, may be necessary to counteract the effects of birth dearth in South Korea.

References

^ ^a ^b Lewis-Kraus, Gideon (3 March 2025). "The End of Children: Birth rates are crashing around the world. What does that mean for our future?". The New Yorker. Condé Nast. pp. 28–41. ISSN 0028-792X. OCLC 320541675. Archived from the original on 24 February 2025. Retrieved 14 August 2025. A population will be stable if it reproduces at the "replacement rate", or about 2.1 babies per mother. [...] Today, declining fertility is a near-universal phenomenon. Albania, El Salvador, and Nepal, none of them affluent, are now below replacement levels. Iran's fertility rate is half of what it was thirty years ago. Headlines about "Europe's demographic winter" are commonplace. Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, has said that her country is "destined to disappear". One Japanese economist runs a conceptual clock that counts down to his country's final child: the current readout is January 5, 2720. It will take a few years before we can be sure, but it's possible that 2023 saw the world as a whole slump beneath the replacement threshold for the first time. There are a couple of places where fertility remains higher—Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa—but even there the rates are generally diminishing. Paranoia has ensued. [...] South Korea has a fertility rate of 0.7. This is the lowest rate of any nation in the world. It may be the lowest in recorded history. If that trajectory holds, each successive generation will be a third the size of its predecessor.
^ "Population of Europe, History plus Forecast". International Futures. Retrieved 2013-08-04.
^ "Total Fertility Rate of Europe, History plus Forecast". International Futures. Retrieved 2013-08-04.

External links

"Birth Dearth", Michael Meyer, Newsweek, September 27, 2004
"Behind the Birth Dearth", Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, May 24, 2006

[Lewis-Kraus-1] Lewis-Kraus, Gideon (3 March 2025). "The End of Children: Birth rates are crashing around the world. What does that mean for our future?". The New Yorker. Condé Nast. pp. 28–41. ISSN 0028-792X. OCLC 320541675. Archived from the original on 24 February 2025. Retrieved 14 August 2025. A population will be stable if it reproduces at the "replacement rate", or about 2.1 babies per mother. [...] Today, declining fertility is a near-universal phenomenon. Albania, El Salvador, and Nepal, none of them affluent, are now below replacement levels. Iran's fertility rate is half of what it was thirty years ago. Headlines about "Europe's demographic winter" are commonplace. Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, has said that her country is "destined to disappear". One Japanese economist runs a conceptual clock that counts down to his country's final child: the current readout is January 5, 2720. It will take a few years before we can be sure, but it's possible that 2023 saw the world as a whole slump beneath the replacement threshold for the first time. There are a couple of places where fertility remains higher—Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa—but even there the rates are generally diminishing. Paranoia has ensued. [...] South Korea has a fertility rate of 0.7. This is the lowest rate of any nation in the world. It may be the lowest in recorded history. If that trajectory holds, each successive generation will be a third the size of its predecessor.

[2] "Population of Europe, History plus Forecast". International Futures. Retrieved 2013-08-04.

[3] "Total Fertility Rate of Europe, History plus Forecast". International Futures. Retrieved 2013-08-04.

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