2025 Iran internal crisis

The 2025 Iran internal crisis refers to the crisis within in Iran following the 2025 Iran–Israel war. The period is characterized by domestic unrest and political instability in Iran, marked by government crackdowns, mass arrests, militarization and economic decline, in an effort to maintain control.^[1][2]

The 12-day war had lasting psychological and political consequences, causing internal tension and expanding the Islamic Republics "crisis of legitimacy".^[3] An NRCI report and others highlight the weaknesses in security and management ability. Instead of promoting unity or initiating reforms, Iran’s leadership has turned inward, engaging in internal disputes and avoiding accountability.^[3][4][5] Amnesty International’s Karg observes that, in response to growing international isolation, the regime is tightening domestic control through intensified repression and likely a rise in executions In addition, the war’s aftermath has pushed Iran’s already struggling economy into an even more unstable and vulnerable state.^[6]

The crisis emerged in the aftermath of the June 2025 Iran-Israel war, which began on 13 June 2025, when Israeli forces launched attacks targeting Iranian military, nuclear, and political leadership sites. Iran retaliated with extensive missile and drone barrages against Israeli and allied targets, including a US base in Qatar. The war ended with a US and Qatar brokered ceasefire on 24 June.^[7]

Following the conclusion of the June 2025 war between Iran and Israel, the Islamic Republic of Iran has undertaken a broad campaign of internal repression. These measures, encompassing mass arrests, forced deportations, accelerated executions, expanded surveillance, and intensified restrictions on civilians, have been labeled by news outlets such as France24, The Wall Street Journal and more, as indicative of heightened regime paranoia^[8] and a perceived threat of domestic unrest or infiltration.^[3][2][4]

Despite the short duration of the war, the psychological and political impact on Iran was substantial, media using words such as "paranoia" and "unrest", highlighting the crisis.^[9][4][10] The Iranian government’s limited ability to prevent or retaliate against the precision strikes, despite its claims of regional deterrence, shattered public confidence in its security doctrine. The war exacerbated existing socio-economic pressures and ignited widespread public anger, laying the foundation for the domestic crisis.^[11][12][5]

As Iran loses influence abroad, its regional proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad’s regime in Syria are weakened, the regime is tightening control domestically. Amnesty International’s Karg notes that, facing isolation, Tehran is reinforcing its grip at home through increased repression and likely more executions under vague foreign collaboration laws. Information access is limited due to internet blackouts, but there are growing fears for political prisoners.^[6] Political scientist Mirzaei adds that hope in Western intervention has faded, making internal resistance even harder. Both experts stress that while outside pressure such as economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiation, can influence human rights, real change must come from within Iran.

An NCRI report highlights how rather than demonstrating unity or embarking on necessary structural reforms, the regime’s leadership has resorted to infighting and denial, hallmarks of a system in crisis. Public disputes among officials, including discredited allegations such as refugee involvement in espionage, have only deepened internal mistrust and disarray.^[3]

Mahmood Amiry Moghaddam, director of the Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization, said Wednesday that the Islamic Republic is likely to ramp up repression in the wake of the ceasefire with Israel in order to "cover up military failures, prevent protests, and ensure its continued survival." ^[13] Meanwhile, Iranian officials defended the government's approach. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, told Al Jazeera English, "Our people showed that they are resolute in their defense of national security and sovereignty."^[11]

In the days following the ceasefire, Iranian authorities shifted focus to intensifying internal security. Widespread arrests, executions, and military deployments were reported. By late June, more than 700 individuals had reportedly been arrested across various provinces, with particular focus on Tehran, Kurdish-majority areas, and other border regions. The arrestees were accused of espionage, collaboration with foreign intelligence services, or other national security offenses.^[14][15] Among those detained were political activists, minority community members, dual nationals, and individuals with no prior record of political dissent. In several cases, defendants were denied legal representation, tried in closed proceedings, and subjected to expedited sentencing, including capital punishment.^[16][6]

These actions have been framed by Iranian authorities as preemptive security measures in response to possible infiltration by Israeli intelligence agencies during the conflict. International human rights organizations have criticized the operations as violations of due process and indicative of repressive state behavior under crisis conditions.^[3] Nooshin, a 44-year-old housewife from Tehran, said the government had already begun its usual pattern of crackdowns in response to pressure, "Basically, after every crisis, the Iranian regime has a habit of punishing its own people, and this time, it will probably get many dissidents into trouble".^[11]

The Iranian parliament has concurrently proposed legislation to mandate capital punishment for all individuals convicted of espionage, effectively removing judicial discretion and codifying severe punitive measures into law.^[17] Legal experts and human rights monitors have expressed concern that such legislation would further curtail civil liberties and judicial independence, enabling the regime to suppress political opposition under the guise of national security enforcement.^[13]

In parallel with arrests, the Iranian government significantly increased the rate of deportation of Afghan nationals residing in the country. Prior to the war, deportations averaged approximately 5,000 per day. This figure rose to as high as 30,000 daily deportations by early July 2025.^[16][18]

According to United Nations and humanitarian reports, over 1.1 million Afghans were forcibly returned between March and early July. Many of those deported had resided in Iran for extended periods and were expelled without legal recourse or adequate warning. The official justification for these expulsions cited national security concerns, espionage, with allegations that Afghan migrants could be used as vectors for foreign infiltration.^[19]

The mass deportations have created a humanitarian crisis along Iran’s eastern borders, particularly around Herat in Afghanistan, where thousands of returnees have faced severe shortages of shelter, water, and medical aid.^[20][21]

Increased security measures have included the proliferation of checkpoints in urban and rural areas, particularly in provinces with high levels of ethnic and political dissent. These checkpoints have been used to stop and search vehicles, inspect mobile phones, and question civilians without warrants. Simultaneously, the IRGC and Basij militia units have expanded their operations, especially in Kurdish, Baluchi, and Arab-majority regions. These forces have reportedly conducted warrantless raids, home searches, and mass detentions.

The heightened paramilitary presence is viewed by analysts as a preventative measure aimed at deterring unrest and reinforcing regime control in regions considered politically volatile.

The recent fatal shootings in the city of Khomein mark a growing series of violent encounters at checkpoints operated by Iran’s IRGC and its affiliated Basij paramilitary units. On July 2, Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the IRGC, reported that security forces had fatally shot two young men, Mehdi Abaei and Alireza Karbasi, near the city of Hamedan in western Iran. The victims, who were reportedly on a hiking trip, were killed under still-unexplained circumstances. On July 19, members of the Basij paramilitary force shot and killed a family driving past a checkpoint, including a baby, Raha. Social media users compared Raha’s killing to that of Kian Pirfalak, accusing the authorities of targeting unarmed civilians while using post-war security measures with Israel as a pretext. Exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, expressed on X that these actions by Iran's own leaders show the desperate nature of the regime "taking revenge for its humiliation by murdering children."^[22]

While authorities routinely promise investigations into such deadly encounters, there has been no public disclosure of disciplinary actions or legal proceedings against the perpetrators. On the contrary, survivors and grieving families are often subjected to state pressure, facing intimidation aimed at silencing demands for justice.^[12]

The regime’s inner circle appears to be entering a phase of acute paranoia. In the wake of Israel’s initial strikes the leadership  has amplified a climate of suspicion at the highest levels. The leadership, now gripped by fear of both external subversion and internal betrayal, is likely to retreat even further from the public sphere. According to one observer, appearances by the Supreme Leader may become increasingly rare and limited to tightly stage-managed events, carefully insulated from any spontaneous interaction.^[4]

But the consequences may not stop at the top. As fear metastasizes within the system, it risks being redirected inward, toward the population itself. Iranians expressed that they expect the regime to "take out all their anger" on civilians.^[11] In such a scenario, the people may no longer be seen merely as passive subjects, but as potential adversaries. The regime, in its heightened state of insecurity, could come to view society as an internal threat, one to be monitored, contained, and, if necessary, repressed.^[23][10]

In early July, Iran implemented nationwide internet shutdowns, including a blackout beginning on July 6, which dropped connectivity to roughly 20% of normal levels.^[24] These restrictions followed a similar mid‑June blackout (June 17–18), which slashed traffic by around 97%. Government messaging framed this as a cybersecurity defense against Israeli attacks, while observers highlighted the economic damage (estimated at $1.5 million/hour loss) and the tightening reliance on the Air‑gapped "National Information Network".^[25][26]

In the aftermath of the 12-day war, Iran’s internal economy has entered a phase of heightened instability and fragility. The conflict delivered a sudden shock to a system already weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement, and infrastructural decay. The displacement of nearly seven million people from urban centers during the war disrupted commerce, transportation, and local economies. Though many residents have returned, the economic rhythm has not fully recovered, and business continuity remains strained in key sectors.^[27][28]

Post-war, Iran faces the dual challenge of physical and institutional recovery. Power shortages, already critical before the conflict, have worsened significantly. Industrial zones now experience unscheduled and prolonged blackouts of up to five hours daily, severely undermining manufacturing output and supply chains. Compounded by logistical breakdowns and reduced fuel availability, basic services are under pressure, and small businesses face renewed uncertainty. If the Israeli strikes damaged refining capacity or disrupted distribution channels for industrial inputs, the recovery trajectory will be even more arduous.^[29]

The post-war economic outlook is further complicated by Iran’s political response to the strikes. The government’s move to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency signals a confrontational stance that risks triggering new European sanctions under the nuclear agreement’s enforcement mechanisms. This has alarmed many inside Iran who fear deepening isolation and economic suffocation. Sanctions could tighten access to foreign currency, limit imports of essential goods, and further erode public purchasing power, outcomes that would disproportionately affect ordinary Iranians already burdened by inflation and unemployment.^[30][31]

In the aftermath of the recent conflict with Israel, calls for economic and political change were intensified. This reformist push comes amid a deepening internal crisis in Iran, marked by public disillusionment, years of sanctions, mismanagement, and isolation have strained the economy, while widespread corruption and lack of accountability have eroded trust in the ruling system. Reformists see this moment as critical: either the Islamic Republic opens up politically and economically, or it risks further instability and collapse. The recent war with Israel, exposed the vulnerability of Iran’s security and diplomatic isolation.^[32] Mir-Hossein Mousavi, leader of the 2009 Green Movement, renewed his call on July 11, 2025 for a referendum to establish a constitutional assembly, framing it as the only path to “save” Iran. He emphasized the war was born from grave political missteps and warned that public unity should not be mistaken for endorsement of the existing regime.^[33] Former President Hassan Rouhani publicly described the crisis, including the June 24 ceasefire, as a unique opportunity to "rebuild the foundations of governance." Rouhani stressed that national security requires not just military deterrence but also a “resilient economy, wise diplomacy, and mutual trust between state and society”.^[34]

Around 200 economists and former officials have publicly called for a "shift in the paradigm of governance," urging diplomacy with the U.S. and Europe, financial restructuring, and stronger anti-corruption measures. Reformist figures like Mir-Hossein Moussavi, still under house arrest, have gone further, calling for a national referendum to establish a constitutional parliament and begin a political transition. However, the conservative power structure, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shows no sign of yielding ground, and key reformist voices continue to face repression, including extended prison sentences for political dissidents. Activists and protesters claim they have remained quiet, fearful and confused by the war, expressing anger at both Iran and Israel. A notable comment reported by EuroNews quotes "After the strikes are over, we will raise our voices, because this regime is responsible for the war".^[35][36]

• Water scarcity in Iran
• Reactions to the Iran–Israel war
• Censorship in Iran